Over the past 100 years, there have been more changes in our reality than in the previous 28,000 years - the moment when the Cro-Magnons survived the night of Brahma emerged from their icy cave and began to settle around the planet.
The lifestyle of Homo sapiens has not changed for many thousands of years. And suddenly happened in the twentieth century such acceleration. Do you think this randomness and acceleration will soon stop? I think that we must learn to live in conditions of continuous instability.
This applies not only to personal strategies, but also to the competitiveness of companies. Now the winner is the one who can change - to maintain the adequacy of a growing reality.
Gordon Bell designed most of the series of PDP minicomputers at Digital Equipment Corporation, and his experiments with "life-logging" deepened our understanding of reality. Bell's law says that technology develops according to the principle of the equilibrium that is periodically violated every 10 years, and again and again moves all that exists into a new reality. For example, giant mainframes were squeezed out of the market by minicomputers, in turn they were forced out of personal computers, then smartphones appeared. The newest phenomenon is Internet of Things, IoT.
My anthropological research allows to draw a conclusion that everything always returns "to its own", on a new level of reality. And mainframes come back, already like supercomputers and cloud services. And so we all move together in a spiral, from which there are only two outputs: down and up. There are always two ways out of the time helix: to complication or degradation.
Not money, not territories, not institutions, but methods of change determine today both personal success and the ability to survive corporations and states.
The world is permeated with an infinitely complex system of connections that are not always obvious. How to make changes without exposing yourself to the risk of making a fatal error? At the heart of any strategy is the mechanism of "trust management". In 1939, Joseph Stalin had to choose between Hitler and Roosevelt. The head of the USSR put Hitler on and made a mistake. Germany after two years bombed Moscow. The collapse of the strategy was the result of a mistake in assessing trust. The complexities of present-day Russia are of the same order.
Nakamoto's law: "Business operations are improved when the system is governed by trust, and not by human intermediaries".
... everyone hopes for blockade, and I'm on God. But the topic of blockage is old, as it is based on its accounting double entry, known since the time of the ancient Phoenicians. This is the same distributed ledger, distributed ledgers. Nothing is new under the moon ... Phenicia is a legendary ancient country known as the Promised Land.
Once I studied a question that related to the history of this land of the promised times of the war of the pharaoh with the Hittites. I compared the texts of different ancient books of different religions. And suddenly it began to seem to me that they were all made up according to the principle of blockade. Then I saw this pattern in other texts, even Russian annals. All ancient books and legends of the most diverse religions of the world, the most diverse epics from China to Ireland, are a single record, torn to pieces and distributed according to different sources.
One can not understand the whole depth of God's message without operating the Vedas, the Talmud, the Bible and the Qur'an, and the texts of other religions. And exactly, therefore, they can not add anything from themselves. I was shocked by this discovery.
All wars on earth come from the fact that almost no one understands a single cultural code! All of us need to be very peaceful and tolerant to find and read the entire record hidden in our national apartments. And this is the code of our ideal consciousness, which determines the quality of our personality, as the operating system determines the quality of any computer. But if you learn to read God's code, then no one can ever deceive you. It's amazing!
In 2008, a file describing the operation of the payment system in the form of a peer-to-peer network was published by a person or a group of people under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. A few months later Nakamoto released the first version of bitcoin: an electronic currency with a distributed ledger. The first exchange bitkoynov for real goods occurred in May 2010 - an American Lazlo Khanech for bitkoyny bought two pizzas
Further improvement of the protocol is organized and coordinated by the community of independent developers, with any significant changes to be made by the majority of owners of the mining pools.
We see the collapse of hierarchies. In the new world of communicating independent civilian polices, will the masses of bureaucrats and office employees be needed? It seems to me that no.
Managing the trust that the millennium has been a monopoly of state, financial and ideological power and the political talent of the individual, goes into the management of the technosphere.
The effectiveness of the new information modular reality is that, although the core of the technology remains hidden, the bitcoins themselves are joined as compatible blocks, each of which is derived from the code of the previous one. This is made possible by the appearance of a new class of computers that work with cloud software and encryption
Ronald Coase back in the 1930s thought about why firms arise and why they are declining. He received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1991. His main theorem sounds like this: the company becomes viable, when the independent execution of some actions is cheaper for it than transferring it to an external contractor. If not for this state, then there would be no companies at all, and people would work together only on specific projects.
New digital technologies create the conditions when the very necessity of hierarchical companies is being questioned, because in the digital reality the external cost of many contracts is reduced. There is a threat that new information technologies will completely destroy large companies. Web services Google, Amazon, Microsoft have already benefited from this trend, and such services are likely to be multiplied.
We are moving into an era when there will be less and less stable hierarchical companies, and there will be more and more temporary horizontal unions for specific tasks. The same will happen with states, the need for which becomes unobvious.
Due to Coase's law, the reduction of transaction costs will lead to the collapse of many financial, ideological and administrative institutions. The world will be different.
And again we return with the long-forgotten - global and unified knowledge. We are moving into the smart world.
Gennady Klimov, Tver, April 14, 2017